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9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Libro

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Consegna da: Stati Uniti d'AmericaLibro in tedescoSi tratta di un libro tascabileNuovo libro
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) o 3639407555

, in tedesco, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, Libro in brossura, Nuovo
New Book. This item is printed on demand. Shipped from US This item is printed on demand.
Dati da 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (notazioni alternative): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Voce dell'archivio:
9783639407556 - Dominik Beck: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Libro

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Consegna da: GermaniaLibro in tedescoSi tratta di un libro tascabileNuovo libroristampa
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) o 3639407555

, in tedesco, Av Akademikerverlag Mrz 2014, Libro in brossura, Nuovo, ristampa
This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware - Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, E.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine 'good' probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme. 92 pp. Englisch
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Dati da 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (notazioni alternative): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Voce dell'archivio:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Libro

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2012)

Consegna da: GermaniaLibro in tedescoSi tratta di un libro tascabileNuovo libroristampa
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) o 3639407555

, in tedesco, AV Akademikerverlag, Libro in brossura, Nuovo, ristampa
This item is printed on demand for shipment within 3 working days.
Dati da 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (notazioni alternative): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Voce dell'archivio:
9783639407556 - Beck Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Libro

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts (2014)

Consegna da: GermaniaLibro in tedescoSi tratta di un libro tascabileNuovo libro
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) o 3639407555

, in tedesco, BLUES KIDS OF AMER 01/10/2014, Libro in brossura, Nuovo
New Book. Shipped from UK. This item is printed on demand.
Dati da 19/10/2014 03:05h
ISBN (notazioni alternative): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6
Voce dell'archivio:
9783639407556 - Beck, Dominik: Evaluating Probability Forecasts - Libro

:

Evaluating Probability Forecasts

Consegna da: GermaniaLibro in tedescoSi tratta di un libro tascabileNuovo libro
ISBN:

9783639407556 (?) o 3639407555

, in tedesco, Av Akademikerverlag, Libro in brossura, Nuovo
Forecasting is of utmost importance in statistics. Besides the very popular point forecasts, there are probability forecasts which naturally incorporate the uncertainty associated with a prediction. Probability forecasts have first been used in meteorology, however, applications are manifold, E.g. in economics the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In order to determine "good" probability forecasts, the concepts of sharpness and calibration are introduced. Calibration which is the statistical consistency between the forecasts and the observations, is assessed by the Probability Integral Transform (PIT). Sharpness measures the extent to which a probabilistic forecast is spread out and is assessed on the basis of so called scoring rules. These scoring rules are introduced along with some properties, the most important being (strict) propriety. Different scoring rules are introduced such as the quadratic score, the log score or the Ranked Probability Score. The empirical analysis is based on the SPF dataset. In addition to the single forecasts of the participants to the SPF, linear and logarithmic combinations with different weighting schemes of these single forecasts are analysed. Finally, statistical tests for equal predictice power in the sense of the well-known Diebold-Mariano test of these combinations are introduced and used to search for the best combination scheme.92 S. 220 mmVersandfertig in 3-5 Tagen, Softcover
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Dati da 24/09/2015 16:49h
ISBN (notazioni alternative): 3-639-40755-5, 978-3-639-40755-6

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